Market pressures and low prices for many agricultural goods will cause more farms to go out of business over the 2004-14 period. The complexity of modern farming and keen competition among farmers leave little room for the marginally successful farmer. Therefore, the long-term trend toward the consolidation of farms into fewer and larger ones is expected to continue over the 2004-14 period and result in a continued decline in employment of self-employed farmers and ranchers and slower-than-average growth in employment of salaried agricultural managers. As land, machinery, seed, and chemicals become more expensive, only well-capitalized farmers and corporations will be able to acquire many of the farms that become available. The larger, more productive farms are better able to withstand the adverse effects of climate and price fluctuations upon farm output and income. Larger farms also may have advantages in obtaining government subsidies and payments as these payments are usually based on per-unit production.

In addition, the agriculture sector continues to produce more with fewer workers. Increasing productivity in the U. S. agriculture industry is expected to allow greater domestic consumption needs and export requirements to be met with fewer farmers, ranchers, and agricultural managers overall. The overwhelming majority of job openings for self-employed farmers and ranchers will result from the need to replace farmers who retire or leave the occupation for economic or other reasons. Despite the expected continued consolidation of farmland and the projected decline in overall employment of farmers, ranchers, and agricultural managers, an increasing number of small-scale farmers have developed successful market niches that involve personalized, direct contact with their customers. Many are finding opportunities in organic food production, as more consumers demand food grown without pesticides or chemicals. Others use farmers' markets that cater directly to urban and suburban consumers, allowing the farmers to capture a greater share of consumers' food dollars.

Some small-scale farmers belong to collectively owned marketing cooperatives that process and sell their product. Other farmers participate in community-supported agriculture cooperatives that allow consumers to directly buy a share of the farmer's harvest. aquaculture may continue to provide some new employment opportunities over the 2004-14 period. New concerns about overfishing and the depletion of the stock of some wild fish species will likely lead to more restrictions on deep-sea fishing, even as public demand for the consumption of seafood continues to grow. This demand has spurred the growth of aquaculture farms that raise selected aquatic species such as shrimp, salmon, trout and catfish, in pens or ponds. Aquaculture's presence even in landlocked States has increased as farmers attempt to diversify and cater to the growing demand for fish by consumers. In addition, growing demand for horticulture products, such as flowers, ornamentals, trees, shrubs, and other nonedibles, is expected to produce better employment opportunities for greenhouse and nursery farmers and managers.

American farmers, ranchers, and agricultural managers direct the activities of one of the world's largest and most productive agricultural sectors. They produce enough food and fiber to meet the needs of the United States and for export. Farmers and ranchers own and operate mainly family-owned farms. They also may lease land from a landowner and operate it as a working farm. The type of farm they operate determines their specific tasks. On crop farms, farms growing grain, cotton, other fibers, fruit, and vegetables farmers are responsible for preparing, tilling, planting, fertilizing, cultivating, spraying, and harvesting. After the harvest, they make sure that the crops are properly packaged, stored, or marketed. Livestock, dairy, and poultry farmers must feed and care for the animals and keep barns, pens, coops, and other farm buildings clean and in good condition. They also plan and oversee breeding and marketing activities.

Horticultural specialty farmers oversee the production of ornamental plants, nursery products, such as flowers, bulbs, shrubbery, and sod, and fruits and vegetables grown in greenhouses. Aquaculture farmers raise fish and shellfish in marine, brackish, or fresh water, usually in ponds, floating net pens, raceways, or recirculating systems. They stock, feed, protect, and otherwise manage aquatic life sold for consumption or used for recreational fishing. Responsibilities of farmers and ranchers range from caring for livestock, to operating machinery, to maintaining equipment and facilities. The size of the farm or ranch often determines which of these tasks farmers and ranchers will handle themselves.

Operators of small farms usually perform all tasks, physical and administrative. They keep records for management and tax purposes, service machinery, maintain buildings, and grow vegetables and raise animals. Operators of large farms, by contrast, have employees who help with the physical work that small-farm operators do themselves. Although employment on most farms is limited to the farmer and one or two family workers or hired employees, some large farms have 100 or more full-time and seasonal workers. Some of these employees are in nonfarm occupations, working as truck drivers, sales representatives, bookkeepers, and computer specialists. agricultural managers manage the day-to-day activities of one or more farms, ranches, nurseries, timber tracts, greenhouses, and other agricultural establishments for farmers, absentee landowners, or corporations. Their duties and responsibilities vary widely, but focus on the business aspects of running a farm. On small farms, they may oversee the entire operation; on larger farms, they may oversee a single activity, such as marketing.

Agricultural managers usually do not perform production activities; instead, they hire and supervise farm and livestock workers, who perform most of the daily production tasks. In these cases, managers may establish output goals; determine financial constraints; monitor production and marketing; hire, assign, and supervise workers; determine crop transportation and storage requirements; and oversee maintenance of the property and equipment. Farmers, ranchers, and agricultural managers make many managerial decisions. Farm output and income are strongly influenced by the weather, disease, fluctuations in prices of domestic and foreign farm products, and Federal farm programs. In crop production operations, farmers and managers usually determine the best time to plant seed, apply fertilizer and chemicals, and harvest and market the crops. They use different strategies to protect themselves from unpredictable changes in the markets for agricultural products. Many farmers and managers carefully plan the combination of crops they grow, so that if the price of one crop drops, they will have sufficient income from another crop to make up for the loss.

While most farm output is sold directly to food-processing companies, some farmers, particularly operators of smaller farms, may choose to sell their goods directly through farmers' markets or may use cooperatives to reduce their financial risk and to gain a larger share of the retail dollar. For example, in community-supported agriculture (CSA), cooperatives sell shares of a harvest to consumers prior to the planting season, thus freeing the farmer from having to bear all the financial risks and ensuring the farmer a market for the produce of the coming season. Farmers, ranchers, and agricultural managers also negotiate with banks and other credit lenders to get the best financing deals for their equipment, livestock, and seed. They also must keep abreast of constantly changing prices for their products and manage the risk of fluctuating prices.

Those who plan ahead may be able to store their crops or keep their livestock to take advantage of higher prices later in the year. Those who participate in the risky futures market, where contracts on future production of agricultural goods are bought and sold, can minimize the risk of sudden price changes by buying futures contracts which guarantee that they will get at least a certain price for their agricultural goods when they are ready to sell. Like other businesses, farming operations have become more complex in recent years, so many farmers use computers to keep financial and inventory records. They also use computer databases and spreadsheets to manage breeding, dairy, and other farm operations.